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The government has been urged to introduce a long-term rail strategy as new research suggests the number of UK rail passengers could double by 2050.
On behalf of the Railway Industry Association (RIA), consultancy firm Steer found that rail passenger volumes could grow between 37% and 97% by 2050 compared to the pre-pandemic peak. This equates to between 1.6% and 3.0% average growth per annum.
Furthermore, Steer said it was confident that rail demand in the UK will grow beyond today’s network “under any scenario”, regardless of government policy. Rail services and operators will need to accommodate to meet the increased demand.
Almost 1.76 billion rail journeys were taken in 2018/19, which was a record high, despite a minor fall in growth the previous year. However, the pandemic saw passenger numbers plummet to levels not seen on the network since the Victorian era.
In the years since 2020, the numbers of people using the railways has increased considerably, although it’s not up to 2019 levels yet.
But the Steer analysis suggests that even under the most pessimistic scenarios, UK rail demand is expected to show a steady and continuing upturn. The main drivers for the extra demand include population and economic growth in addition to policy interventions that could further stimulate passenger numbers and increase revenues for the sector.
Earlier this month the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated that the UK population will rise by 6.6 million or 10% to 73.7 million in the next 15 years to mid-2036 – this will have significant implications for infrastructure and transport.
Darren Caplan is the chief executive of the RIA. “This landmark report sets out a range of scenarios for future rail passenger growth, yet under all of them passenger numbers grow, which will have clear impacts on capacity in the future,” he said.
“Under the lowest growth scenario, even if the UK government does nothing and lets the industry drift along as it is, rail passenger numbers still grow by a third in the 25 years to 2050.
“Alternatively, if a future government adopts a bold and ambitious strategy to improve the customer offer and drive some behavioural change, passenger numbers could double by 2050, dramatically increasing revenues. Freight is also likely to grow in this time, with the government itself setting a 75% growth target over the next 25 years.
“So there is clearly a huge opportunity to expand rail travel, benefiting the UK’s economy and its connectivity, as well as bringing social and decarbonisation benefits. To achieve this, we need to see rail reform and a long-term rail strategy as soon as possible, including a plan for increased north-south capacity, which all rail experts agree will not be delivered under current plans.”
Earlier this month, MPs on the Public Accounts Committee said that HS2 had become “very poor value for money” after last year’s cancellation of the Northern leg.
