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The negative impact of climate change on agricultural yields, labour productivity and infrastructure will cost the world an estimated $38tn annually by 2050, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have said.
In a study, they found the world is “already committed” to an income reduction of 19% until 2050 due to the impact of past emissions, even if CO2 emissions were to be drastically cut down from today.
The damages incurred are an estimated six times larger than the mitigation costs needed to limit global warming to 2°C.
“Strong income reductions are projected for the majority of regions, including North America and Europe, with South Asia and Africa being most strongly affected. These are caused by the impact of climate change on various aspects that are relevant for economic growth such as agricultural yields, labour productivity or infrastructure,” says PIK scientist and first author of the study Maximilian Kotz.
While the damages mainly result from rising temperatures, changes to rainfall and temperature variability will also have an impact. Accounting for other weather extremes such as storms or wildfires could cause further harm.
PIK scientist Leonie Wenz, who led the study, said the analysis shows that climate change will cause massive economic damage in highly developed countries such as Germany and the US as well as developing countries.
The study also suggests that more adaptation efforts will be needed to avoid some of the near-term damages, and if emissions are not cut down “drastically and immediately”, economic losses will become even bigger in the second half of the century.
To date, global projections of economic damages caused by climate change typically focus on national impacts from average annual temperatures over the long term.
This study includes findings from climate impacts on economic growth in more than 1,600 sub-national regions worldwide over the past 40 years. By focusing on the next 26 years, the researchers were able to project damages from temperature and rainfall changes in great detail while reducing some of the large uncertainties associated with long-term projections.
Anders Levermann, co-author of the study, said: “We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer. Further temperature increases will therefore be most harmful there.
“The countries least responsible for climate change are predicted to suffer income loss that is 60% greater than the higher-income countries and 40% greater than higher-emission countries. They are also the ones with the least resources to adapt to its impacts. Staying on the path we are currently on will lead to catastrophic consequences.”
