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With China’s surge in coal power development and low retirement rates in the rest of the world, global operating coal capacity grew in 2023, potentially affecting climate change targets.
According to Global Energy Monitor’s (GEM’s) annual survey of global coal-fired power units, capacity grew by 2% in 2023 to 2,130GW. This is the highest net increase since 2016 – despite the retirement of 21.1GW of coal capacity last year.
Of the 69.5GW of coal-fired power capacity that came online in 2023, China accounted for two-thirds (47.4GW). The surge in capacity also originated in Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece and Zimbabwe.
According to GEM, this growth in capacity could be tempered if China takes immediate action to ensure it meets its target of shutting down 30GW of coal capacity by 2025.
“The recent surge in coal power development in China starkly contrasts with the global trend, putting China’s 2025 climate targets at risk,” said Qi Qin, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “At this pivotal juncture, it is crucial for China to impose stricter controls on coal power projects and expedite the transition towards renewable energy to realign with its climate commitments.”
According to GEM, low retirement rates in 2023 are expected to pick up speed in the US and Europe. At 9.7GW, the U.S. contributed nearly half the capacity retired in 2023, while in Europe the retirement rates included 3.1GW in the UK, 0.6GW in Italy and 0.5GW in Poland.
The report also showed that coal plant construction decreased outside China for the second year in a row, the lowest since 2015. Only seven countries appeared to start construction on new coal units last year: one plant each in India, Laos, Nigeria, Pakistan and Russia, as well as three plants in Indonesia.
However, in China 70.2GW of new construction started in 2023, which represents 19 times the rest of the world’s 3.7GW. The new construction starts in China were also nearly quadruple what they were in 2019 when China hit a nine-year annual low of entirely new builds.
Flora Champenois, coal programme director for GEM, warned that this growth in coal capacity was not good news for our climate: “Coal’s fortunes this year are an anomaly, as all signs point to reversing course from this accelerated expansion.
“But countries that have coal plants to retire need to do so more quickly, and countries that have plans for new coal plants must make sure these are never built. Otherwise we can forget about meeting our goals in the Paris Agreement and reaping the benefits that a swift transition to clean energy will bring.”
