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The world’s best regions for growing avocados are being threatened by climate change, which could lead to a major decline in harvests by 2050, a report has found.
According to Christian Aid, harvests could fall between 14% and 41% in major avocado growing regions like Mexico and Burundi.
Mexico is the world’s biggest producer, and could see its potential growing area reduced by 31% by 2050, even if global average temperature rise was limited to under 2°C. It could even be reduced by as much as 43% if global average temperature rises towards 5°C. Michoacán, Mexico’s key avocado growing region, is expected to be particularly affected, with a potential reduction in its growing area of 59% by 2050.
The superfood has long been is known for its impact on the environment due to its need for lots of water. This makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change as many water sources are expected to dry up in a hotter, drier, more drought-prone world.
Christian Aid called on governments to commit to urgent emissions reductions and accelerate the energy transition away from fossil fuels and towards clean, renewable energy.
The development charity also wants to see more financial support provided to vulnerable agricultural communities that rely on avocado growing for their livelihoods so they can adapt to the changing climate – a change that has been driven primarily by polluting nations in the global north.
Mariana Paoli, global advocacy lead at Christian Aid, said: “It’s no surprise that avocados are popular throughout the world, from Brixton to Burundi. Avocados might be a superfood, but their kryptonite is climate change. They are thirsty plants that are ill-suited to a hotter, drought-prone planet, which is where we’re heading if rich nations don’t act to cut their fossil fuel use and reduce emissions.
“Agricultural communities in developing countries are already bearing the brunt of the climate emergency, and they rely on stable and predictable climates to feed their families. That is why it’s vital they receive a lot more financial support to adapt to this changing climate.”
Avocado consumption has risen dramatically in recent years. According to the OECD, they are expected to become the second-most traded major tropical fruit by 2030 after bananas, overtaking the likes of pineapples and mangoes.
In Europe, avocados have become the second-most valuable imported fruit from developing countries, with an import market estimated to be worth about €1.8bn in 2022.
Honor Eldridge, expert on sustainable food policy and author of The Avocado Debate, said: “It takes, on average, 320 litres of water to produce just one avocado. However, with climate instability, many of the countries that grow avocados are facing growing water stress, like Peru and Colombia, which is impacting harvests and destroying livelihoods. Producing an avocado is therefore becoming increasingly expensive and these costs will likely be passed onto the consumer, raising the price we pay for our guacamole.”
