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Setbacks in bringing in new nuclear power means energy supply is not coming online fast enough, and could cause an energy security crunch point in 2028.
According to a new independent report by Public First, Mind the gap: Exploring Britain’s energy crunch, commissioned by power generation business Drax Group, the next government will need to take action early on to ensure the nation’s lights remain on.
The report predicts that the UK’s demand for power will exceed baseload capacity by 7.5GW at peak times by 2028 – a shortfall equivalent to the power used by more than seven million homes.
A major factor is that Hinkley Point C is facing further delays. Originally set to open in 2023, the UK’s first new nuclear plant in a generation now has an estimated completion date of 2029.
These delays and the inevitable rise in costs is also causing bickering between the French and UK governments about who should pay. Energy firm EDF, which is wholly owned by the French government, owns a major stake in Hinkley Point C (66%).
While there is a huge push to increase renewable energy power sources such as wind and solar to meet net zero targets, the problem, according to the report, is that these sources are dependent on the weather. Baseload energy sources, such as nuclear, can run all the time.
While renewable energy sources will certainly bring new capacity online, it is unlikely that new-build plants (beyond those already in the pipeline and under construction) will be online in the next few years.
Renewable energy is key to reaching net zero targets, but not enough will be online in the next few years to ensure energy security – Shutterstock
Added to the delay to Hinkley Point C’s commissioning, energy security is most at risk in 2028. According to the report, by 2028 there could be a shortfall of 7.5GW between secure dispatchable and baseload capacity and peak demand – almost double what was present in 2022 (4GW) and 2.5 times the estimated average difference for 2024-27 (2.8GW).
These expected shortfalls without any additional action by government will mean the UK will be even more dependent on intermittent power from international sources, including power imported from France, Norway and other European countries.
This does not sit well with the British public. The research found that energy security is a major concern for the nation with a considerable majority (81%) believing the UK should be self-sufficient in terms of energy production.
With a general election looming, the UK’s energy security will be a key challenge for whoever is in government. However, the report states that with the right policy actions early on, including extending the life of existing assets and managing demand, it could help ensure the UK has a more secure, diverse and sustainable energy system in the future.
Daisy Powell-Chandler, head of energy and environment at Public First, said: “Setbacks in bringing new nuclear and offshore wind online, the retirement of generation assets and increasing power demand will create an energy crunch point in 2028. But the challenge of keeping the lights on is not set in stone: policymakers have a suite of levers they can pull to ensure that we have a more secure, diverse, and sustainable energy system in the future.”
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