Carbon emissions from the global power sector may have peaked this year as wind and solar generation continue to grow, an analysis has found.
According to the Ember think tank, emissions from the sector plateaued in the first half of 2023, with just a slight increase of 0.2 per cent compared to the same period last year.
During this time, wind and solar were the only electricity sources that significantly increased both their generation, as well as share in the global power mix. Across the globe, 50 countries set new monthly solar generation records in the first half of 2023.
China continues to be the leader in solar generation, providing 43 per cent of global growth, while the EU, US and India accounted for about 12 per cent each. But China also approved more than 50GW of new coal power in the first six months of 2023 – despite commitments to reduce its carbon emissions – and now consumes more than 50 per cent of the world’s coal supply.
Adverse conditions for electricity generation from hydro facilities were likely the main factor in preventing emissions from falling overall, Ember said.
Hydro generation dropped by 8.5 per cent in the first half of 2023 due to droughts – many of which were likely caused by climate change. The deficit created by hydro, particularly in China, led to a small increase in fossil fuels.
However, low electricity demand helped to suppress further emissions growth at a global level by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels. Falls in demand led to significant emissions drops in the EU, US, Japan and South Korea, while moderate demand growth in India led to slower emissions growth.
Earlier this year, another Ember analysis showed that 2023 may be the first year with structurally falling global emissions from the power sector if clean power growth continues.
Before this point, power sector emissions have been structurally rising, and there have only ever been falls during global economic shocks such as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. It still remains too close to call whether power sector emissions will fall across the full year in 2023.
To achieve the rapid declines in emissions required this decade, there needs to be a rapid acceleration in the deployment of wind and solar power. Tripling global renewable capacity by 2030 is the single biggest action that governments can take to put the world on course for a 1.5°C aligned pathway, Ember said.
Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, a senior electricity analyst at the think tank, said: “It’s still hanging in the balance if 2023 will see a fall in power sector emissions. While it is encouraging to see the remarkable growth of wind and solar energy, we can’t ignore the stark reality of adverse hydro conditions intensified by climate change.
“The world is teetering at the peak of power sector emissions, and we now need to unleash the momentum for a rapid decline in fossil fuels by securing a global agreement to triple renewables capacity this decade.”
